Just about every article I read on the real estate and condo markets in Toronto deals with the short term- what is going to happen in the next month or six months? The truth of the matter is that owning a condo is not a short term decision. Unlike owning a stock portfolio, everyone needs a place to live and investing in ownership rather than renting has proved to be the best choice over the long run for as long as I can remember. Hysteria over falling prices is way overblown. First of all, everyone reports average prices for Canada and that in itself is a problem. Western Canada experienced rapid price growth and that is where prices are correcting. Toronto did not experience the same price jump and so the downside is much less. Detached housing will come under more price pressure than condos in Toronto because they had ...
LONG TERM CONDO MARKET IS POSITIVE
December 29, 2008
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2008 MARKET REPORT
November 24, 2008
SALES COMMENTARY: Last month, we spent the entire Report trying to educate the public on how the real estate market operates. It did not seem to have much effect as the rest of the Media was intent on doing the ‘Chicken Little’ thing and the public bought in! So let’s go back to reporting the Stats. Residential sales in October suffered their biggest single month decline this year over ’07; down 35%. The 416 area code was worse, down by 38%. In terms of condos, the overall market was off 25%, but Downtown, where condo activity is stronger, sales were down more, to 32% from the same month a year ago. There is no doubt the New City Land Transfer Tax introduced in 2008 pushed forward sales into late 2007 and this also had a negative impact on this year’s sales. Only the politicians who imposed the tax seem surprised ...
November 24, 2008
Sales Commentary: Last month, we spent the entire Report trying to educate the public on how the real estate market operates. It did not seem to have much effect as the rest of the Media was intent on doing the 'Chicken Little' thing and the public bought in! So let's go back to reporting the Stats. Residential sales in October suffered their biggest single month decline this year over '07; down 35%. The 416 area code was worse, down by 38%. In terms of condos, the overall market was off 25%, but Downtown, where condo activity is stronger, sales were down more, to 32% from the same month a year ago. There is no doubt the New City Land Transfer Tax introduced in 2008 pushed forward sales into late 2007 and this also had a negative impact on this year's sales. Only the politicians who imposed the tax seem surprised ...
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2008 MARKET REPORT
September 16, 2008
SALES COMMENTARY: Toronto real estate sales continued their 2008 trend – downwards by 22% in August over last year and 15% on a year-to-date basis. Downtown Condo sales are also down on a monthly basis by 13% and 12% on a year-to-date basis. In most commodity markets, lower sales means falling prices. But not necessarily in real estate! If sellers do not get their price, they simply do not sell or they take their property off the market. So how are U.S. real estate prices falling? First many owners have defaulted on their mortgages and banks have to put these properties into the market to sell at any price. Secondly, builders constructed a lot of housing on ‘spec’ and they have it to sell it. In the U.S. there is a ten month supply of housing inventory. This scenario does not exist in Canada – minimal foreclosures and very little ...
AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2008 MARKET REPORT
August 20, 2008
SALES COMMENTARY; Another month in the books and the results are the same. Sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board were down by 12% in July from July of last year. Active listings are up 28% and the average price was up by just 1% over last year. It certainly suggests that the market is slowing down and we do to disagree with that assessment. In fact, you read it several months ago in this Report that house prices in Toronto ‘peaked’ in January of this year! Yet we continue to believe that owning is a better option than renting- and so do most Canadians! But the biggest problem with reporting numbers like these is that both bank economists and newspaper reporters somehow believe that the housing market is just another commodity when in actual fact real estate consists of many micro markets. In July, condo sales between $300,000 and ...
JULY/AUGUST 2008 MARKET REPORT
July 18, 2008
Sales Commentary June's results on the Toronto Real Estate Board continued the downward trend in sales and the upward trend in active listings. Sales were down by 18% from the same month last year while new listings increased by 10%. A sure recipe for prices to level off at a minimum! So don't get fooled by average prices being higher than a year ago. The condo market fared slightly better. Downtown condo sales were lower by 12 % but new listings were up by 17%, partly because the condo market is generally more active over the summer. The HALF YEAR report card is in! Overall sales are down by 15%. Our forecast is that annual sales for 2008 will be 80,000 units (in 2007 it was 93,000). Sales will also be lower than in 2006, 2005, and 2004!! Prices for detached housing peaked in January. Downtown condo sales in total ...
JUNE/JULY 2008 MARKET REPORT
June 20, 2008
SALES COMMENTARY: May sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board were again lower than the same month last year – down by 16%. At the same time, active listings were 8% higher than a year ago. Condo sales fared better. They were down 9% overall, and off by 10% Downtown from May of 2007. After FIVE MONTHS, let’s put the condo market in perspective by looking at the YEAR TO DATE condo stats. Yes, sales in 2008 are 9% lower than 2007 but listings are up only 2%! At the same time, the days-on-market for solds dropped from 28 days in 2007 to 23 days this year. The sale-to-list-price ratio was 100% in 2007 and is still 100% in 2008! What does that tell you? Price it right and it will sell. Price it wrong and it will sit. We have a strong and active market in 2008. What we ...
June 20, 2008
Sales Commentary: May sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board were again lower than the same month last year
MAY/JUNE 2008 MARKET REPORT
May 22, 2008
Sales Commentary: April was the third month in a row where sales were lower than the same month last year on the Toronto Real Estate Board. Only in January, when buyers were trying to beat the New City Land Transfer Tax, were sales higher than the previous year. It is also safe to say that May's sales will be lower too! In terms of numbers, residential sales were off by 7%. But for the first month, the listing inventory was 18% higher than the same month in '07. That is the telling factor! Remember that we have always stressed that real estate is not a national market, although it makes for a good story. Real estate is not even regional but is a local market. Unlike other commodities, you cannot 'truck' excess capacity i.e. listings from one market to another. Economists simplistically think that excess bungalows for sale in Brampton ...
APRIL/MAY 2008 MARKET REPORT
April 28, 2008
Sales Commentary: Here we go again explaining why sales are down. Yet the market is not correcting, as many newspaper experts want you to believe. Remember last month's Report when we told you that bad weather can impact a market, and that we also expected March sales would be lower too! Well they were! Residential sales for the month were off by 22% from March of '07. Overall condo sales were also lower by 10%, and the Downtown and Etobicoke markets were off by 18% and 14%. So condo sale numbers do lie!! What is more important is that the average 'days on market' is only 24. In the U.S. it is measured in months - try 8 to 10. The average 'sale to list price' is 101% - and multiple offers are very common on good properties. Finally the number of active condo listings Downtown in March of '08 ...