Never have I seen a market with such little market inventory - properties for sale. Many owners, myself included, have said 'If you don't need to sell, sit on it", the market is still rising. But, this is also the best time to unload what I call, 'less desirable properties' and put them up for sale. In a normal market, these properties are difficult to sell and they sell at a discount. However, in today's market, they will sell at full value and quickly. So what do I mean by less desirable properties? Sell that condo on the second floor overlooking the garbage bins. Sell that condo on the fifth floor that sits beside the gardener with windows that are never allowed to open, and sell that condo gets no sunlight. You know what I'm talking about. Never has there been a better time for sellers to unload a property ...
The Perfect Market for that Less than Perfect Condo
January 23, 2017
2017 Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast
January 10, 2017
Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By Bedroom Type (All Areas) Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Q3 Many forecasters or pundits get bogged down in irrelevant statistics. Past experience has shown that the view from ‘the street’ has been more accurate than the ‘view from the executive floor’. In real estate, lower sales do not automatically translate into lower prices. And the average price to average income ratio for valuing property prices over a number of years is also of little value when you consider the impact of immigrants, non-residents, and self- employed buyers in today’s market. If you want further proof, just read our 2016 Forecast versus what actually happened in 2016 on our website. GTA Year Over Year Summary 2016 2015 % Change Sales 113,133 101,213 11.8% Average Price $729,922 $622,121 17.3% Average DOM 17 22 -22.7% New Lisitngs 154,266 160,520 -3.8% FACTORS AT PLAY ...
3 Predictions for Toronto Real Estate in 2017
December 19, 2016
With 2016 drawing to a close, everyone wants to talk about the Toronto market for 2017. So here are my preliminary thoughts; Lower Sales than in 2016 We predict lower sales than we've seen in 2016. Why? There is no product available and listings are way down. Secondly, the new mortgage rules will make it harder to qualify for everyone. For first-time Buyers, many will not even qualify at all, which will put a drag on the move-up market as well. Prices will not be falling No, prices will not be falling, but don't expect price increases of 20% for houses and 12% for condos that we saw this year. Rather, 10% and 5% will be more the norm. Increase in Housing Demand Finally, thanks to Justin Trudeau who wants to encourage 400,000 immigrants per year rather than the 250,000 we're having, many of which end up in Toronto ...
The Trump Effect (On Toronto Real Estate)
December 13, 2016
With the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. people are asking me about the Trump effect on Toronto Real Estate. First, don't expect any Americans to move here, that was just celebrity talk. Do expect more people to move here from other parts of the world. That's all thanks to the Donald, who has made the U.S. less hospitable to immigrants. The other impact from this election is a jump in interest rates. Bond rates, which impact Mortgage rates are 1% higher today than the market low in the summer. However, they are still below rates in 2014. The primary reason for the rise is investors are worried about inflation and massive Government deficits from Trump's plan for massive infrastructure spending. My take? Not all the spending will take place, and there is still too much cheap money in the world. Rates will level off around these levels. In the ...
The Problem with Dual Agency
November 30, 2016
Dual Agency seems to be today's hot topic. Most people think it occurs when a Sales Person represents both Buyer and Seller. In realty it occurs when one or more different Sales People from the same Brokerage represent the Buyer and the Seller. When there are different Sales People from the same Brokerage involved, we should really rename this, Designated Agency. This is where RECO, The Real Estate Council of Ontario, should step in and introduce new rules to cover each case. The other problem is that a Sales Person acting in Dual Agency knows all of the offers submitted. Under the Real Estate and Business Broker's Act, you could only disclose the number of the offers and who are the Sales People presenting these offers. Why not change the rules? With competing offers, lets disclose all the terms of the offer; the price, conditions, closing date, etc. to all ...
Market Report November-December 2016
November 21, 2016
Sales Commentary On one level, sale results for October suggest that this market will continue indefinitely. Overall, sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board were ahead by 11.5% compared to October of last year. But there are signs that these sale increases cannot continue. ‘Active’ listings are down by 34% from last year at this time, and ‘days on market’ has shrunk to just 16 – meaning that we are running out of saleable properties. In 2015, sales from September to October increased by 7.5% (which is normal). In 2016, sales from September to October declined by 1%. This slowing is a direct result from less listings on the market. Demand (buyers) has not slowed down and the Home Price Index for detached housing in Toronto is up by 19% in the last year. This shortage has now transferred into the condo market (even with all those cranes).The result is ...
Who Regulates Realtors®?
November 16, 2016
Recently, the media has pointed the finger at unscrupulous Realtors® in terms of self-dealing and unethical behavior. They want change and they point the finger at self-regulation. RECO, The Real Estate Council of Ontario was established to enforce the real estate and business brokers act and to deal with consumer complaints. It was set up by the Ontario government supposedly to provide self-regulation. In reality the government just out-sourced the cost of regulation onto the shoulders of salespeople and brokerages. Today, 6 out of 9 directors are appointed by the Government. Realtors® elect only 3. All RECO employees are government employees. Realtors® have no say on hires and Realtors have to say on introducing new regulations. So, if the public wants change, don't blame realtors, blame the Ontario Government for inaction.
Toronto Market Report October-November 2016
October 20, 2016
Sales Commentary September sales followed a similar pattern to previous months. Sales were 21% higher than in September of 2015. But of more significance was that sales of 9900 units were more typical of a June and July than of a fall market. At the same time, listings continued to be in short supply – down 36% from a year ago. The end result is a continuing upward pressure on prices of all types of housing. The condo market mirrored the stats of the overall market – sales ahead by 30% and active listings lower by 40% against September of 2015 numbers. But what everyone is talking about is the mortgage changes introduced by the Federal Government, effective October 17. First, all insured mortgages – both high ratio and conventional will have to be qualified at the POSTED RATE (4.54%) and not the actual five year rate nearer to 2.5 ...
Implications of Canada's New Mortgage Rules
October 17, 2016
On October 3rd, a firestorm hit the real estate market when the minister of finance announced two changes to mortgage rules. Last week we discussed what those mortgage rule changes where. This week we want to take a look at what the implications will be of the new mortgage rules, especially those of people having to qualify for the posted rate as opposed to the actual rate for their mortgage. Will Prices Fall? First off, with buyers having less money to purchase, will prices fall? The answer is no. In real estate, if the Sellers don't get their price, that is what the last property sold for, they just take the property off the market. They do not reduce their price. What About First Time Buyers? First time Buyers will have two choices going forward, buy smaller, not low rise but condos, or continue to rent. For those trying ...
New Mortgage Rules
October 7, 2016
On October 3rd, a firestorm hit the real estate market when the minister of finance announced two changes to mortgage rules. Closing the Loophole The first rule was to remove the principal residence exemption for non residents. But think about it, how can a non-resident have a principal residence in Canada, Impossible! But now we're closing that tax loophole and that will have little impact on the real estate market. 'Stress Test' on Insured Mortgages The Second change is more serious. Now, both high ratio and conventional mortgages insured under CMHC and two other companies must be qualified under the posted rate, and not the actual rate. Remember, for people who took out 5 year mortgages, they used to be able to qualify at the actual rate. The bad news is that the posted rate is about 2% higher than the five year rate. People then will be forced ...